Sunday, August 29, 2004

More A's Second Base Speculation

Ken Arneson, who is, to my knowledge, the first person to have read an entry on this blog, pointed me in the direction of Ray Ratto's column on Kent-to-the-A's in today's Chronicle, which made a similar argument to mine. Ratto argued that a better choice would be to acquire Placido Polanco. Let's compare Polanco's splits to the McLemore/Scutaro combo (Scutaro against LHP, roughly 1:1 Scutaro to McLemore ratio against RHP):

Polanco: .315/.351/.490 vs LHP, .255/.321/.356 vs RHP
Scutamac: .292/.341/.513 vs LHP, .270/.325/.338 vs RHP

Looks like about the same run production. Polanco is, however, a better second baseman defensively. If you prorate his FRAA/AdjG over the next 30 games, he saves 4 runs over a 2:1 Scutaro to McLemore ratio, and about two and a half runs over nineteen playoff games. So a Polanco deal would probably provide about the same difference in production as a Jeff Kent deal. Would it be worth it for the $800K or so left on Polanco's contract? Possibly. Would it be worth it for the $800K or so left on Polanco's contract on top of a decent prospect? Given the margin for error with the A's budget, I doubt it.

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